
Hey, it’s not your money. Or ours.
The New York Yankees have been active in the free-agent market this offseason, keeping tabs on candidates of all kinds, from those expected to join the nine-figure club (Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger) to those who could be scratching for smaller deals (Frankie Montas, Kevin Kiermaier) and everyone in between. At some point, the Yankees will look to spend some of owner Hal Steinbrenner’s riches. Here’s why they should (and shouldn’t) sign some of the biggest names in their sights.
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Why they should sign him: Bellinger was one of the most productive players in baseball this season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 29 doubles, 26 home runs, 97 RBIs and 20 stolen bases. He plays both center field and first base, which is important to note because Anthony Rizzo could become a free agent at the end of the 2024 season. Bellinger would also provide the Yankees with some needed lineup balance in the middle of their order as a left-handed bat whose swing is perfectly crafted for the team’s short porch in right field.
Why they shouldn’t: Bellinger’s output exceeded what advanced analytics would suggest of someone with his profile. He posted a career-low 29.3 percent hard-hit rate, his BABIP was .319 this year which is considerably higher than his career mark of .285, and his xwOBA, which measures the quality of his contact, paints him as just being slightly above average this season. Bellinger is also two years removed from back-to-back awful seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers that ended with him getting non-tendered. Because of the lack of star talent available in free agency, Bellinger will likely cash in given the production in his platform year. Teams must decide whether the outperformance of his metrics is worth the risk and if this kind of year is repeatable.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Orix Buffaloes (NPB)
Why they should sign him: He’s the best starting pitcher available and the Yankees need starting pitching. He’s just 25 years old. The Yankees could build around him in their rotation for years. Yamamoto has won three straight Eiji Sawamura Awards, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award. He has a career 1.72 ERA over 188 games, his fastball touches 99 mph, he’s got a hammer curveball and excellent command.
Why they shouldn’t: The bidding for Yamamoto will be intense. If Aaron Nola received $172 million from the Philadelphia Phillies, imagine how much Yamamoto could get. Many estimates have been for more than $200 million. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden has projected a seven-year, $211 million deal for Yamamoto. Another slight concern: At 5-foot-10, he isn’t exactly built like a traditional workhorse. He’ll have to adjust to an MLB rotation schedule of pitching every five days, though a team could get creative and find ways to get him extra rest.
New York Yankees GM Brian Cashman on witnessing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s no-hitter
“It was fantastic. It was great for the fans and I’m glad I got to see it first hand.”
He is then asked, “So next year?”
“Have a good day.”pic.twitter.com/wZ5WUu0WsI
— Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) September 10, 2023
Jung-hoo Lee, CF, Kiwoom Heroes (KBO)
Why they should sign him: Lee is a left-handed hitter who has shown elite contact skills, extremely low strikeout rates, and he has some pop in his bat, as he hit a career-high 23 home runs in 2022 while playing in the KBO. The Yankees could also use some more youth and athleticism on their roster, and at 25 years old, he would fit with some of the other up-and-coming players who are either on the cusp of the major leagues or already on their roster, like Anthony Volpe, Jasson Domínguez, Austin Wells and Oswald Peraza.
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Why they shouldn’t: The Yankees want to win a World Series next season, and having someone who may take a few years to adjust to major league pitching in their lineup may be difficult. In 2021, Ha-Seong Kim made his debut with the San Diego Padres after playing in the KBO and he was brutal at the plate. He’s since been an above-average hitter in back-to-back seasons and has won a Gold Glove. But the Yankees only have so many more prime years left with Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole. Could they afford a risk on a potential developmental project?
Why they should sign him: He’s coming off a solid offensive season (104 OPS+) and has been a mostly league-average hitter (career 98 OPS+) while providing strong defense in center field (13 OAA). He’s also a lefty, which would help the Yankees balance their righty-heavy lineup — an issue general manager Brian Cashman has addressed publicly. Kiermaier has also played 11 seasons in the American League East — 10 with the Tampa Bay Rays and one with the Toronto Blue Jays. He knows what it’s like to face some of the game’s toughest competition every night.
Why they shouldn’t: Kiermaier will turn 34 next season. Will age start to catch up to his legs? It seems likely he would look for at least a slight raise on the one-year, $9 million deal he struck with the Blue Jays last season.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Why they should sign him: Born in New York City and raised in the Dominican Republic, Candelario would potentially give the Yankees their first steady, everyday third baseman since Gio Urshela. A well-regarded defender at third base and passable at first base, Candelario is a switch-hitting threat who posted a 119 OPS+ (22 HR, .807 OPS) in 505 at-bats last year. Bowden predicts that Candelario will end up with a two-year, $15 million deal.
Why they shouldn’t: Insert shrug emoji. Candelario seems as good of an option as any if the Yankees don’t go for Chapman. But they may prefer to stay internal and give the job to Peraza or DJ LeMahieu, however unlikely.
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Why they should sign him: Since the Yankees traded Montgomery last season, he’s turned into one of the better pitchers in the sport and just finished his best season yet, posting a 3.20 ERA with both the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals. Montgomery was also special in the postseason, including three outings against the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series in which he threw 14 innings while only giving up two runs. Montgomery’s sinker usage has dramatically increased since leaving the Yankees and it’s been one of the biggest reasons why he’s had success. It also has to be noted that the Yankees’ clubhouse was devastated when he left; he’s still beloved there.
Why they shouldn’t: Truthfully, there’s not a good reason to not pursue a reunion with Monty. He’s become an upper-echelon starter because of his sinker, and his curveball that plays off of it. He is not a strikeout pitcher by any means and pitches more to contact, but that’s not necessarily a negative, especially for a team that has a good defense (outside of left field this season) when healthy. There’s a case to be made that outside of Yamamoto, Montgomery is the second-best available starter, ahead of National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell.
Why they should sign them: Both Hernández and Soler are being lumped together because they are better suited as designated hitter options rather than everyday outfielders, and both are likely to get similar deals in free agency. The main draw with both Soler and Hernández is their ability to mash. The Yankees got away from their roots of slugging and hitting as many bombs as humanly possible this season and it led to one of the worst offenses the team has had in recent memory. In their last three healthy seasons, Soler and Hernández have each hit at least 25 home runs. That number would’ve tied for second on the Yankees this season.
Why they shouldn’t: The Yankees have a designated hitter in Giancarlo Stanton and they will pay him $32 million in 2024. At this point in his career, Soler is a DH and not passable as a defender in left field — then again, neither were the approximately 100,000 left fielders the Yankees rolled out this year. Hernández is just an OK fielder and probably shouldn’t play left field in Yankee Stadium. So the Yankees may stay away, as Stanton is clogging the DH spot and there may not be a spot in the field for either of them. But they should be interested as they’re two of the better hitters available.
Frankie Montas, RHP, New York Yankees
Why they should sign him: When Montas was last fully healthy in 2021, he finished sixth in the American League Cy Young voting. Before he hurt his shoulder last season, he was pitching well with the Oakland Athletics, but then the injury derailed his season and he was terrible with the Yankees. He was never fully healthy with New York in 2022 and missed nearly the entirety of this season before making his debut in the final series of the year. There’s a chance that the Yankees could get a good starter on an incentive-laden deal that won’t hurt the payroll.
Why they shouldn’t: Montas’ career doesn’t contain a lengthy period of sustained success. He’s thrown over 150 innings just once and missed basically all of 2023 because of shoulder surgery. But if there’s a team that’s going to know his medicals better than anyone on the market, it’s the Yankees. Because of the uncertainty surrounding Montas, at worst he would be a good depth option who likely will get a one-year deal in free agency.
Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH
Why they should sign him: Duh. He’s the face of the sport. He would hit tanks into the short porch at Yankee Stadium. Next year, when he’s back from his elbow surgery and able to pitch again, he’d make an all-time one-two punch with Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation. Oh, you say he’s going to command a $500 million deal? So what? The Yankees would find a way to triple that outlay via marketing and all kinds of sales. It would mean a financial windfall for the pinstripes.
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Why they shouldn’t sign him: Well, first off, there’s been no indication that Ohtani wants to play for the Yankees. He didn’t even let them meet with him when he was a free agent first coming over from Japan. And if we’re splitting hairs, he’d have to take over as full-time DH, which would mean the end of the Stanton era. (The Yankees would have to convince Stanton to drop his no-trade clause — which probably wouldn’t be too hard considering Ohtani would have usurped his role — and likely eat basically all of the $98 million still remaining on his deal.) Also, Ohtani has a history of elbow issues now, and that has to raise a small red flag.
(Top photo of Cody Bellinger: John Fisher / Getty Images)
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